Interactive Data
Visualizations

Fig. 1. Six simultaneous aerosol release points of Variola major across the transatlantic community. Red markers indicate confirmed attack sites with release vectors (public transport hubs, airports, bazaars). Dashed lines show inferred transmission corridors based on international air traffic routes. Source: Atlantic Storm Scenario Planning Assumptions, Center for Biosecurity, UPMC (2005).

Fig. 2. Animated propagation of smallpox cases from initial release sites. Circle radii are proportional to confirmed case counts at each time interval. Orange rings: initial outbreak (T+0h, 51 cases). Red rings: transatlantic spread (T+4.5h, 3,320 cases). Dark red rings: projected 60-day mortality zones (45,000+ US deaths, millions worldwide). Use the layer control to toggle time phases.

Fig. 3. Modeled epidemic curve showing cumulative confirmed cases (log scale, red) and estimated deaths (dark red) over 60 days following simultaneous multi-city release. The R₀ used in the scenario was higher than historical smallpox transmission rates (~3), which has been noted as a criticism by Leitenberg (2005). Dashed vertical lines indicate key decision points during the exercise.

Fig. 4. Choropleth map of national smallpox vaccine stockpile coverage as a proportion of total population. Data sourced from scenario briefing materials and NBC News reporting (January 14, 2005). Green: full population coverage (100%). Yellow: partial (20%). Orange: limited (10%). Red: critical (≤5%). The EU had failed to agree on shared stockpile allocation prior to the exercise (Gouvras, 2004; Sundelius & Grönvall, 2004).

Fig. 5. Comparative vaccine stockpile levels as percentage of national population. Five nations maintained full (100%) coverage while Turkey possessed enough vaccine for only ~1% of its 70 million citizens. This disparity was the exercise's most shocking revelation and directly drove border closure and hoarding dynamics. "When I saw the list, that was a shock to me" — Klaas de Vries, former Dutch Interior Minister.

Fig. 6. Chronological sequence of major biosecurity tabletop exercises designed by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and affiliated institutions. The institutional thread connects Tara O'Toole (Dark Winter, Atlantic Storm), Tom Inglesby (Atlantic Storm, Clade X, Event 201), and the Sloan Foundation's $44.1M biosecurity investment (2000–2010). Event 201 simulated a novel coronavirus pandemic 2 months before SARS-CoV-2 emerged.

Fig. 7. Left: Radar chart comparing Atlantic Storm's identified preparedness gaps across 7 dimensions — higher values indicate greater vulnerability. Right: Stacked comparison of Atlantic Storm predictions vs. actual COVID-19 outcomes across key failure categories. Nearly every predicted failure mode materialized during the 2020–2021 pandemic response.